Me too. I think your chart is assuming too high a processing rate.
Update On Ontario Restricted Transfer Times
- Thread starter pygmalion2020
- Start date
Me too. I think your chart is assuming too high a processing rate.
I did not make the chart but I feel it was created just to give us a general idea on timing.
It's nice to know that you/we are within the next 1,000 which means both of us should get transfers before end of August.
This gives us a much better idea of where everything is currently at. Assuming that Dialtor and infected are the first and last transfers of the day (we work with the data we have): At the most pessimistic calculation, we started at 5893199 today, and ended at 5893300. That's 101 transfers in a day. At best, we started at 5893100 and ended at 5893399, which is 299 transfers. That averages out to 200 transfers today, but I always like to go 33% rather than a straight up average, so let's say 132 transfers today. Please check my math, too.
Thanks for sharing! I'll post when my 58941xx comes in (hopefully at the end of this week, if not early next week)
machohugeaxe
Regular
- Location
- Peel Region, Ontario
Wish we had more data, since Ontario would just be a portion of those transfer numbers. Its highly variable, and doesn't need to be uniform could be all Ontario transfers in between, or just 20%. If we had a few days worth start/ends, might make it easier.
I have been looking at purchasing a handgun from alberta or sask, live in ontario. I was a member of a range/club before covid but no longer am, is being a member at a club or ranger still required for purchasing a handgun in Ontario?
I am wondering anyone that has had their transfer approved recently had any information.
TIA.
I am wondering anyone that has had their transfer approved recently had any information.
TIA.
xTHERUMOURMILLx
Member
- Location
- Kawartha Lakes
No, you can purchase as a collector. However, I imagine there is a more general inquiry area that would be more suited to these types of questions.
as I understand it, no you do not have to be a member or a collector. Every sight I have ever purchased from shows club/range membership as an optional entry for Ontario purchaseres
I would say the since the proportion of canadas population that lives in Ontario is around 40% that you could assume the same factor would be in purchases. The original chart assumes 33% which is close but may be skewed a bit low.
machohugeaxe
Regular
- Location
- Peel Region, Ontario
Assuming they don't add more resources, other provinces don't help, no batch processing is implemented, no process improvements of any kind, and the transfer employees don't improve at their jobs at all.
- Location
- Chatham Kent
Moving quicker than I expected, I'm not complaining though. Thanks for the update!
The 1/3 comes from the original CFO announcement that said one-third of the sales were in Ontario.
Thanks for the updates, Wolf.
Ok, sorry if i came off as critical. I was simply adding some logic that may give a reason why the chart may be off by a few days.
I think the original creator of it has done a bang up job and i am very interested in how it eventually plays. It will only get more accurate as more data is pushed to it. I am thinking my June 2 transfer (58965XX) should come through soon but I have a couple more guns in the cue (5989### and 5990###) and will be interesting to see how much more accurate it gets as more inputs are received.
machohugeaxe
Regular
- Location
- Peel Region, Ontario
Makes sense if you think about it though, 40% of population but a higher % of urban/condo dwellers who wouldn't get as much a chance to use their firearms. i.e. ranges banned in the city of Toronto. So it should probably be less than the proportion of population
No harm done, and anything we can do to make the estimate better.
Few more factors to consider. Even if avg ontario is 1/3 does not mean this is the case for everyday, also gun ownership is not same per province. Also CFO rate of approvals is not same for everyday.
Too many factors to consider that we do not know. My goal with chart was to give us an idea what Month we should expect to hear back from CFO.
Here is wikipedia data on per province licensees in Canada : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firearms_regulation_in_Canada
BorderWatch93
Regular
- Location
- Onterrible
Don’t understand how 75 a day is possible. Are they conducting murder investigations for each one of us? Stamp the ####ing paper, send out the email and repeat. Should be 7500 a day.
