Update On Ontario Restricted Transfer Times
- Thread starter pygmalion2020
- Start date
Consider that Ref numbers, outside on Ontario, starting with a 6###### have already been processing for a while. So those approvals come off the pending list, which results in Ontario having more than 1/3 of the remaining Ref numbers still waiting. I recall a post further back where it was estimated that eventually Ontario would be the only province with transfers still pending. I think we are almost at that point.
That does not change the fact that of all the #6000000+ transfers that were submitted, approximately 1/3rd of them were to Ontario. Everyone else could be done transfers, and Ontario could be the only one still doing them, and Ontario transfers would still be approximately 1/3rd of the numbers that are reported here daily.
Say we're at 6040000, and Ontario is the only province still doing transfers..... going from 6040000 to 6041000 is a difference of 1000, and Ontario would comprise (statistically, approximately) 1/3rd (333) of those 100 transfer numbers. That has nothing at all to do with where the other provinces are in terms of transfer #.
You’re just guessing. You really have no idea.
We’re far enough into this you can average the wait time for the rolling past 7 days, count that number of days from the day you started your transfer. Right now the average time of transfer is 165 days.
Reference numbers almost useless at this point. There is no need to over complicate it at this point.
Please refer to the first 4 words of my post which you initially replied to. (page 694)
Essentially, the point I was trying to make is that of all the transfers which are STILL PENDING, the majority of them are to buyers in Ontario.
For one thing, I am not guessing about anything. I'm doing nothing more than participating in the discussion in this thread, and contributing data points from my transfers as they are processed.
The fellow CGN'r (fortytwo45) that is maintaining the spreadsheet is using all the data available to him, which is not much more than the transfer numbers reported by other CGN'rs in the thread, and the dates that they are approved, combined with the approximation that 1/3rd of Canadian restricted transfers are going to Ontario, based on statistics. It is far from an exact science, true, but it does provide a useful estimate of when a future transfer is likely to be processed. An estimate is not the same as a guess (as you put it), and you stating that "you really have no idea" is also an inaccurate assessment of this spreadsheet.
Case in point: I kept track of my most recent transfer to get approved. On Nov. 2, 2022 the spreadsheet estimated that Jan. 4 would be the day that my transfer would get approved. 2 months later, the approval came in, on Jan. 7. Considering the intervening holidays easily accounted for a few extra days, the spreadsheet was pretty darn accurate with its prediction - a full 2 months ahead of time.
Many of us appreciate the efforts of fortytwo45. There are many of us eagerly awaiting purchases that we made months ago. It is also useful having an idea of when a transfer is likely to be approved if you're going on vacation or going to be away from home - so that you can arrange for the shipping to be delayed a bit, or have someone at your home to receive your package when it arrives, if need be. Additionally, knowing when a transfer ought to be approved can alert you to the possibility that something has gone awry with the transfer at the CFO office (or they maybe just didn't email you) if you don't get your approval on the day (or shortly thereafter) you expect it. The spreadsheet is the best we've got for predicting when that might occur.
Your idea to "average the wait time for the rolling past 7 days, count that number of days from the day you started your transfer" is interesting and may have some merit. You might find, though, that by using nothing but dates your results may be less accurate than fortytwo45's spreadsheet. Handgun sales (and the transfer initiations that went along with them) varied greatly from day-to-day and week-to-week, with reasons for the variability including dealer supplies, imports, availability, selling prices, big auctions happening, what Trudeau and Mendicino might have said on any particular day, and many other factors. All those things caused sales (and transfers initiated) to fluctuate wildly from day-to-day, week-to-week. Also, with even a cursory look at the spreadsheet or the comments in this thread it is readily apparent that the CFO is wildly inconsistent from day-to-day with the number of transfers that get processed. Regardless of all that, if you feel that your method of estimating transfer approvals works better, by all means use it.
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My apologies. I misinterpreted a couple of your posts and got the impression that you didn't understand why the "1/3rd rule" was still entirely valid, regardless of where Ontario was in relation to the other provinces. My bad.
Well actually it should not make a difference. If there were 120,000 transfers and Ontario got 1/3 so 40,000 it does not matter if the other provinces got through there's already. The ones assigned to Ontario are still in the cue and being processed at the same speed. The 80,000 others were shared among the other 8 provinces and 2 territories and may well be done already but speed at which the other provinces is irrelative to the time it will take Ontario at its current and suggested historical rate. They still need to do 40,000 at a couple hundred a day.
The chart gives a reasonable estimation of when a gun may be delivered. Like a weather forecast (another estimate) the further out it is the less accurate it will be but as we get closer the accuracy increases. My reference number range has shifted only about a week either way in the last month which is very helpful and I am very appreciative of the effort made by the members who have put in the time and effort to keep it updated.
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You're 100% right. There's too many people jumping in this thread only to debate the validity of the spreadsheet, or question why x-out the last 2 digits of transfer numbers. I've made too many posts debating them when I should have just ignored those posts.
