Where did all the Milsurps go ???

It's pretty obvious to me.
Gun ownership is skyrocketing.
Like 75% since 15 if I recall correctly.

Lot of these people are young, grew up playing WW2 video games like COD.
Now they want to play with the rifles they saw in the games.
That and the awareness. The gun culture wasn't as known as it is now.
We have forums like this to thank for the "Oh, I had no idea, that's cool, I want one" effect.

The collectables have all been collected.

I'm kind of like that, I wanted ALL the milsurps when I first got into the sport, I ended up with a couple, but in the end,
I opted out of many cause I do hold the mentality that the price wasn't worth it for a gun I won't shoot much.
Pretty much only have some Russians that I got for a good price years ago.

It's a double edged sword. On one hand, now milsurps are hard to find, on the other, new productions guns are becoming more and more accessible do to the scale of demand.

It's interesting, due to circumstances of life, I was unable to participate in the shooting sport for the past 4 years till recently.

When I left, you could still find milsurps for reasonable prices, and AR parts we hard to get.
Now I'm back, milsurps are like 2x to 4x the price and AR parts are plentiful.
 
ouch, prices have gone up on all millsurps and will continue to do so. i was a student for many years and at the time (mid 90's), you could pick up milsurps really cheaply compared to current prices...sks for 70, garand for 175, enfields for under 100, p14 and m17 for 100, k98 norwegian for 150, 1914 colt for 400... i had wanted to get an enfield sniper but couldn't afford one back then as they were 1200 or so. now, the cheapest i have seen for a non matching sniper enfield is around 5000. you get the picture.


so, the best time to buy milsurps is right now as i can't see price dropping judging by the current asking prices on the ee....
 
Horilka said:
Doing anything apart of careful bore cleaning and oiling of metal parts to milsurplus is heresy. Too many people "increasing value of investment" by polishing metals parts, re-bluing them, sanding and/or refinishing the stock, removing patinas and installing aftermarket crap...
Click to expand...

Just drives up the value of original collectibles!
 
Horilka said:
Doing anything apart of careful bore cleaning and oiling of metal parts to milsurplus is heresy. Too many people "increasing value of investment" by polishing metals parts, re-bluing them, sanding and/or refinishing the stock, removing patinas and installing aftermarket crap...
Click to expand...

Only thing id add is if there is some rust you neutralize it but otherwise this is spot on
 
gregc said:
ouch, prices have gone up on all millsurps and will continue to do so. i was a student for many years and at the time (mid 90's), you could pick up milsurps really cheaply compared to current prices...sks for 70, garand for 175, enfields for under 100, p14 and m17 for 100, k98 norwegian for 150, 1914 colt for 400... i had wanted to get an enfield sniper but couldn't afford one back then as they were 1200 or so. now, the cheapest i have seen for a non matching sniper enfield is around 5000. you get the picture.


so, the best time to buy milsurps is right now as i can't see price dropping judging by the current asking prices on the ee....
Click to expand...

I don't know how much higher they can go up; I paid $900 for my Long Branch Enfield Mk4 No.1 because all its stamps we're the same. I'm definitely envious of those who bought their Enfields at $100 a pop.
 
Prices will cap out eventually. There is only so much someone will spend on a firearm, it seems to be the 600-1200 range is where the general public drops out as there is a lot of other things you can buy for that amount (not just firearms).

Eventually prices will go down. All it takes is one economic downturn and all the toys become cheap. That or interest is lost as the prices are too high for most to play.
 
Eaglelord17 said:
Prices will cap out eventually. There is only so much someone will spend on a firearm, it seems to be the 600-1200 range is where the general public drops out as there is a lot of other things you can buy for that amount (not just firearms).

Eventually prices will go down. All it takes is one economic downturn and all the toys become cheap. That or interest is lost as the prices are too high for most to play.
Click to expand...

Can you point a single milsurp rifle that was goings down in price?? (exeptions: prohibited gun or prices reduced by a masive new import from Russia or Ucraina.)
 
Eaglelord17 said:
Prices will cap out eventually. There is only so much someone will spend on a firearm, it seems to be the 600-1200 range is where the general public drops out as there is a lot of other things you can buy for that amount (not just firearms).

Eventually prices will go down. All it takes is one economic downturn and all the toys become cheap. That or interest is lost as the prices are too high for most to play.
Click to expand...

The issue is as time progresses, more bubbas get rifles, some break from standard use, parts wear out that aren’t replaceable, etc. So as time, regardless of the economy milsurps will go up, yes they will probably reach a ceiling but commodities with finite supply rarely decrease in price especially as that supply dwindles
 
cornelunc said:
Can you point a single milsurp rifle that was goings down in price?? (exeptions: prohibited gun or prices reduced by a masive new import from Russia or Ucraina.)
Click to expand...

Ok Civil War firearms. The prices reached their peaks about 20-30 years ago, followed by a big crash in price. Why? Because the costs got too high for most to play, coupled with a high number of high quality fakes out there which took a lot of experience to detect. Nothing like losing thousands of dollars on a gun to make you not want to own that type. Interest also isn't nearly as high anymore in that particular era. Its not that it isn't a interesting area to collect, or that people aren't collecting from that era, just many people are more interested in WWII than the Civil War now.

MattE93 said:
The issue is as time progresses, more bubbas get rifles, some break from standard use, parts wear out that aren’t replaceable, etc. So as time, regardless of the economy milsurps will go up, yes they will probably reach a ceiling but commodities with finite supply rarely decrease in price especially as that supply dwindles
Click to expand...

There is no reason that the interest that exists in milsurps will stay the same. Not saying the interest will seize to exist rather that many might find something more interesting. People weren't really interested in 'modern' milsurps as collectables until about 10 years ago. 40 years ago it was all about the Civil War and sporting rifles. Now you struggle to give away those sporters.

In the short period I have been collecting the demand has gone up significantly, and more importantly people are less willing to sell anymore. 6 years ago you used to see much more movement on the market because you knew you could always buy what you had again fairly easily thanks to the amount of people buying and selling. High prices coupled with a relatively stagnant market = less long term interest as what is the point in collecting if it is so challenging to even get the basic stuff?

Taking prices alone out of the equation, just the availability of milsurps means that as time progresses less collectors will get into it as its too difficult. I can only imagine the struggle I would have trying to build up my collection today, let alone going through the process of figuring out what I like (I did it by buying and selling a bunch of different firearms). That's not to say people won't get into it, but less and less will. Coupled with many fakes on the market today for many of the most popular firearms. Lee Enfields have tons of fakes, 'restored' sporters, and otherwise messed with rifles on the markets that can make it hard to determine if a firearm is a good buy or not. I personally have been burned several times with Lee Enfields and as such am extremely cautious with them. Rosses are another good example of firearms that can have a lot wrong with them and take experience to buy safely. Those are things that turn people off the market as you get burned once or twice and that can be all interest lost, especially at the prices today.

Ultimately milsurps are toys to people these days. Realistically they aren't a practical item for most of us. Yes they can be used practically, but for the majority of collectors/shooters they are going to be regulated to a safe or the gun range. All it takes is one economic downturn for the prices to fall out as with all toys, when the options are food on the table or toy in the basement, you choose the food. It happens to all hobby markets, motorcycles, etc. Might not be this year, might not be next, but just like the 2008 economic crisis, when the next one comes along (and it will), if you need money you will be liquidating at less than the current market value as you won't have much of a choice.

Welcome to the beauty of supply and demand, where unless you have something that has a tangible demand which is based on practicality (i.e. food, natural gas, electricity, etc.), your demand is only a temporary state.
 
Your reasoning sounds good and all but in 2008 we didn't see a surge of cheap guns or cheap classic cars hit the market. Prices stagnated for a while and selection was good but prices did not drop. We would have to see a significantly more crippling downturn for enough to be unloaded for prices to actually drop.
 
Interview: Uli Wiegand of InterOrdnance on Importing Guns from Africa

Jan 30/2020

Massive import coming to the US. Get them if you want just import them..

 
Last edited:
playkation said:
Your reasoning sounds good and all but in 2008 we didn't see a surge of cheap guns or cheap classic cars hit the market. Prices stagnated for a while and selection was good but prices did not drop. We would have to see a significantly more crippling downturn for enough to be unloaded for prices to actually drop.
Click to expand...

And since then the prices had doubled, tripled, and quadrupled for a bunch of firearms. Its one thing when a K31 was 300$, M39 was 400$, a Ross was 800$, a RC K98k was 400$ and a M1 Garand was 800$. Its another when a K31 is 900$, a M39 is 900$, a Ross is 1600$, Russian Capture K98k is 1k and a M1 Garand is 2k. If you need the money, and you mainly have common stuff, your going to have to lower your prices to get someone to buy it. Because I know there is a bunch of milsurps I won't even consider buying at the prices they are at the moment. My interest simply isn't more than the cost.

Classic cars is more of a older person game, and as such they tend to be pretty stable. Look at the motorcycle market in 2008 for a good idea of the prices dropping, I know where I lived every block had at least one for sale. Even though there is a lot of older milsurp collectors, the prices where pretty stagnant with them. It was only once the younger generations became interested a few years ago the prices really started to climb.
 
Eaglelord17 said:
And since then the prices had doubled, tripled, and quadrupled for a bunch of firearms. Its one thing when a K31 was 300$, M39 was 400$, a Ross was 800$, a RC K98k was 400$ and a M1 Garand was 800$. Its another when a K31 is 900$, a M39 is 900$, a Ross is 1600$, Russian Capture K98k is 1k and a M1 Garand is 2k. If you need the money, and you mainly have common stuff, your going to have to lower your prices to get someone to buy it. Because I know there is a bunch of milsurps I won't even consider buying at the prices they are at the moment. My interest simply isn't more than the cost.

Classic cars is more of a older person game, and as such they tend to be pretty stable. Look at the motorcycle market in 2008 for a good idea of the prices dropping, I know where I lived every block had at least one for sale. Even though there is a lot of older milsurp collectors, the prices where pretty stagnant with them. It was only once the younger generations became interested a few years ago the prices really started to climb.
Click to expand...

True, the WW1-2 video games had a big impact, but at the same time we've never seen prices take any sort of significant drop. I see many parallels to the classic car market and would suspect they continue on upward. A semi auto ban would also spike prices in bolt action milsurps as we've seen elsewhere.
 
The only reason there were so many motorcycles for sale in 2008 is all the guys who were making payments on them got stuck and needed to get out when they needed that monthly income for their mortgage payment. Not that many people making payments on guns or classic cars.
 
Demographics still count.
50 years ago, brass cars were in demand., now almost none.
30, or 40 years ago Model A Fords (rare, good) were in the $80 to100K*. Not now.
Muscle cars in 20 years? Market will be down except in some special cases.
SxS shotguns are somewhat passe now, but hot even 10y ago.
Time marches on.
JMHO (and experience)
 
some years back I wanted a nice hunting rifle and liked the k98 so I purchased one from a local dealer. the rifle I got was a rc in near mint condition and I had a scope put on it for deer hunting and the gun is very accurate. I paid 145.00 way back, I should have purchased a few more.
 
I asked a couple of large scale dealers I know about the Interordnance/Classic arms import guns. Stuff came out of Ethiopia and is very rough and is in very low grade condition. Nothing I would spend money on to import!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom