I used to run a gun club and RO for about 15 years. Taken a bit of a break and coming back to the sport after a 5 year break and I'm definatelly noticing some changes and overall trends.
WW 1 & 2 old time ammo seems to be coming to an end on the surplus market. 303 was scarce but still findable 5 years ago but seems to be non-existant now. 8mm is equally hard to come by. Best I could source was x4 what the price used to be and the head stamps are getting toward the ' modern ' era, ie: 1950's. Other old time stuff is just plain gone except for low end factory stuff like Cellier and Belliot so x 4 or 5 the old sweet surplus prices.
If you follow the time line 1952-55 is when most Nato countries started shifting to 308, and most of our related allies started making the shift also . So, when we see 1951-2 headstamps on surplus 8mm, you can kinda guess that you've only got 2-5 years of surplus left and then it's gone and gone for good. 1952-57 put most people on one side or the other of the Cold War fence. Thus you either went 7.62 x 39 AK, or you went 7.62 x 51 and the FN-FAL. 7.62 x 39 is cheap and plentiful on the surplus market but don't count on seeing alot of 308 because technically it was never declared redundant. Alot of gpmg's still run it even though it's mostly 5.56 on the ground. As such stocks overall, if they ever get sold off, will be low.
Checking a 4 year old Shotgun News revealed some interesting things also. South Africa, Israel, South Korea, Turkey, used to be pretty big players in the surplus ammo markets. Most recent issue of SN I picked up, not sure i saw a single one of them mentioned. Might have been a glitch, but could also be a bit of a trend. SA's arms industry like most of the country is falling apart. SK is probably keeping stockpiles high '' just in case ''. Same goes for Israel and Turkey.
Overall we're lucky in Canada to have norc stuff to keep a bit of a lid on prices, but, how long that lasts is questionable. They got booted from the States for being stupid. They seemed to have learned a lesson on that. But, an aggressive China can only play bull in the china shop for so long before they step on to many toes. Cutting off high profit ammo sales would hurt someone's Swiss bank account, but wouldn't overly effect bi-lateral trade, so expect to be the sacrificial lamb if #### hits the fan.
When in doubt, go old school rules. Practice hard with 22, finish with a box or 2 of your main or duty caliber to stay sharp.
Overall though I think we need to get used to the idea that prices are going to be going up because they just will. Mil Serp in non Warsaw Pact countries is close to being over so the days of bargain ammo are close to being at an end.
