machohugeaxe
Regular
- Location
- Peel Region, Ontario
5895!
Update On Ontario Restricted Transfer Times
- Thread starter pygmalion2020
- Start date
5895!
mactroneng
CGN Ultra frequent flyer
- Location
- SW Ontario
To the both of you: what are your transfer numbers? There have been instances of stores not immediately starting the transfer.
As for my earlier post for my calculations support ~110 / day:
I have recorded reference numbers that are 9,409 apart. There is 38 days between transfers, assuming -2 days for every 7 day period (they don't work weekends I assume), so ~28 working days (in reality I think it's actually less because there's a holiday in there.
1/3 of transfers going to Ontario according to that letter the CFO sent out about a month ago.
(9,409 / 3) / 28 days = 112 / day.
If the CFO claims 75-80 is typical for a day (per earlier posts in this thread, a phone discussion was mentioned I think), then the math doesn't add up. Either the CFO is processing faster than they think, or they are getting well under 33% of all transfers... 75 / day x 28 days = 2,100; 2,100 / 9,409 = 22% of transfers nationwide.
Either way, since we are dealing with delta's as far as trying to estimate future timelines for any given transfer, the % to Ontario cancels out. For ease of calculation from that respect you could even assume that 100% of transfers are going to Ontario and the CFO here is fulfilling 9,409 / 28 = 336 / day. It doesn't really matter what % you use as long as you apply it to both total transfers and daily transfers (which is why it cancels out).
My best friend bought from Rangeview on May 31st and they must have dragged their ass initiating the transfer because his Ref# is 5914###. I bought from Epps the day after him and have had my HG for a week now.
Their lack of effort is now going to cost him MONTHS of possession. Precisely why I would not buy from them.
Their lack of effort is now going to cost him MONTHS of possession. Precisely why I would not buy from them.
YoungestPiperCub
CGN frequent flyer
- Location
- Near KW Ontario
I used 1450 per week which is 290 per day so pretty close to what you have.
Chuckbuster
CGN Ultra frequent flyer
At this rate they'll be finishing June 3 at the end of February 2023.
Chuckbuster
CGN Ultra frequent flyer
How so? Unless I've missed something...83 days for Ontario CFO to finish June 1, with the same rate, give it a similar time for June 2 and again to finish June 3. That's roughly another 160 days or almost 6 months. The only saving grace would be a decrease in total transfer numbers which would decrease total processing times by date. However, having been left dangling for 2 or more months at a time by the Ontario CFO at the best of times, I'm not entirely hopeful of a speedy end to this saga. And besides...there was more than a little exasperation implied at the blinding speed of the CFO in my original statement.
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He's just upset, he was not breast fed as a child so he gets mad easily. So ignore him lol. I agree with you at this rate, we will hit 2023.
machohugeaxe
Regular
- Location
- Peel Region, Ontario
No its because it didn't take 83 days to finish June 1... June 1 was only started last month. If you count 83 days you're counting all the back log that existed on June up to end of June 1. i.e. 83 days to do backlog as of June 1 (as far as we know this is 3-4 weeks worth before announcement), plus May 30, 31, and June 1. Basic math and comprehension.
If you're going to do a rough estimate and ignore all collected data then at least put some effort into it. i.e. June 1 was started around July 21. Its been 34 days. According to gunblog data from RCMP (https://thegunblog.ca/2022/08/05/ca...rudeau-said-hes-killing-the-market-rcmp-says/) there was 7104, 7277, 4544 restricted transfers submitted on June 1, 2, 3 respectively. Doing a simple calculation, June 3 could be done roughly in (7277+4544)/7104*34 = mid-late October.
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You are reading too much into this, its a figure of speech. End of day, this is taking way too long and we will be waiting months and months. I ordered my Glock 48 June 1st and now its almost end of august. And I have nothing. By time I get something watch it be another couple months.
I still have the old chart collected from CGN and updating it, but seems like new one I created based on GunBlog is more accurate in estimation and predicts up to July 19 that is plenty.
The blue column is based on data acquired from RCMP on ATIA. Red 5890300 is from CGN, and rest is just guess/math.
We should be seeing June 2nd transfers by next week, the 58947XX should be a June 1st, but not sure why is reported as June 2nd. We had 58953XX reportd as June 1st.
You can see rate of transfers as well on the left in Red for Ontario and orange again for Ontario but just raw ref # increase. Hope it helps.
The blue column is based on data acquired from RCMP on ATIA. Red 5890300 is from CGN, and rest is just guess/math.
We should be seeing June 2nd transfers by next week, the 58947XX should be a June 1st, but not sure why is reported as June 2nd. We had 58953XX reportd as June 1st.
You can see rate of transfers as well on the left in Red for Ontario and orange again for Ontario but just raw ref # increase. Hope it helps.
I actually called the Ontario CFO and they confirmed that the business initiated the 58947XX transfer on Thursday, June 2nd. I am sure of that as I talked to them twice. Not sure why the larger number on June 1. Weird... but who knows.
This forum needs a “like” button!
