The ES of an ammo is impossible to know without chronographing a reasonable sample size. What should that sample size be? The smaller it is, the more unreliable and less useful the data is. For example, chronying five rounds from a box of .22LR ammo will reveal little useful information. I don't remember the math and will add it if possible, but a sample size of 30 will give a significantly more reliable set of data for evaluating .22LR ammo. In other words, a sample size of 30 is statistically valid, while a size of 5 or 10 is not.
More important to .22LR shooters is the standard deviation (SD) of a particular batch or lot of ammo. Like ES a sample size that is larger rather than smaller is important for statistical reliability. The lower the SD, the better. The best .22LR ammo can have an SD as low as 5 fps. More common, even among expensive match ammos, are SD values of 10 fps and higher. What does that mean?
If a very, very good lot of, say, Tenex, has an SD of 5 fps, that means that 68% of the rounds in a valid sample size will have an MV within plus or minus 5 fps of the average MV. That is if the average MV is 1065, 68% of the ammo will fall between 1060 fps and 1070 fps. Further, the SD math means that 95% of the ammo will be within 2 SD or plus or minus 10 fps of the average MV. In this same example 95% will fall between 1055 fps and 1075 fps. The remaining 5% of the ammo will fall outside of that range but within the overall ES of the ammo.
For a visual explanation of SD, see below. Think of the
68-95-99.7 Rule when considering SD. The example, uses an SD value of 10, but for the purposes of illustration here is with very, very good .22LR ammo with an SD of 5 fps. The example is taken from h t t p s://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/04/18/how-much-does-sd-matter/
To continue, if the best .22LR ammo has an SD as low as 5 fps, what SD can shooters expect out of average "good" ammo? Many "good" ammos will have an SD of 10 fps. To illustrate, consider an ammo with an average MV of 1065 fps. With an SD of 10 fps 68% of the ammo will have an MV plus or minus 10 fps of the average MV, a range of 1055 - 1075 fps. And 95% of the ammo will have an MV between 1045 and 1085 fps. The remaining 5% will be outside that range but within the ammo's ES.
If a shooter knows the SD of the ammo in addition to the ES, he is better off. The higher the SD the greater the percentage of the ammo in the box will be closer to the high and low velocities of the extreme spread. Ammo with a high SD is not reliable for target shooting, especially as distance to target increases. A high SD means that more and more of the ammo is closer to either end of the extreme velocity spread. For example consider an ammo with an ES of 40 fps. Alone this sounds like many ammos that shooters reading these pages might regularly use. It can easily include some of the more expensive ammos as well as more affordable ones. Tenex can have an ES of 40 fps, as can Center X; so too can Eley Club or SK Rifle Match.
Very good Tenex with an SD of 5 fps will have 68% of its ammo falling within plus or minus 5 fps of the average MV, a 10 fps range. A further 27% will be within 10 fps of the average MV. This means 95% of the Tenex with an SD of 5 fps will be within 10 fps (plus or minus) of the average MV. The remainder will be at closer to the extreme high and low MV of the ES.
SK Rifle Match with an SD of 10 will have 68% of its ammo falling within plus or minus 10 fps of the average MV, a 20 fps range. Some 27% of the ammo will be with 20 fps of the average MV, a range of 40 fps. In short 95% of the SK Rifle Match with an SD of 10 fps will be within 20 fps (plus or minus) of the average MV. The remainder will be closer to the extreme high and low of the ES.
Clearly, having more of the rounds being closer to the average MV is very desirable. It gives the shooter greater assurance that most of his rounds will be relatively consistent, closer to the ammo's average MV.
What does all this mean? Knowing the ES of his ammo gives the shooter only a partial understanding of how the ammo will perform. He can know what the velocity spread might look like over the course of using a large sample size of his ammo. Knowing the SD of his ammo will give the shooter a fuller understanding of how he can reliably expect his ammo to perform. In short, the ES doesn't tell an ammo's complete story, doesn't paint a complete picture of its nature. The SD of an ammo adds much-needed colour.
Ammo MV consistency as described in its SD is more and more relevant as distance increases. While it alone doesn't guarantee good results, whether on paper or on steel, it is no less important than ES. It's very important measure of the quality of an ammo. Of course an ammo's price tag doesn't guarantee either a low SD or a low ES, both of which are needed especially as range increases.
This is not to suggest that shooters need to chronograph their ammo to know how it will perform. A shooter can simply shoot and see what happens without ever using a chrony. This is what most shooters do, this one included (I have a chronograph but haven't used it in years). If his results are good, he has good ammo. Further, if the results are good, his rifle and shooting are good. But what explains inconsistent results (overlooking for the time the conditions)? Here the shooter is on less sure footing. Is it the ammo, the rifle, the shooter, or a combination of the three (again, disregarding conditions)? Chronographing can help explain the results obtained down range. It doesn't dictate them. The results should be the same regardless whether a chronograph was used. At the same time it's useful to understand why results can be as they are.