Hello bobdbldr!
We are trying to worn people that wants to save their hard earn money. Very simple.
Your opinion does matter!
I would like to bring to your attention that everything goes up in price. Inflation 101.
Supply and demand rule applies to everything in our life and I agree with you with higher prices less people will be able to buy it. This supply and demand also works at original point of sale (Russia or Ukraine ). I have to bring to your attention that Ukraine has war at this point and Russia under sanctions thus less supply. It is a formula that works in both countries

I love the fact that you mention Chinese SKS. Do you honestly think that the price for Chinese SKS does not go up? As far as I know the price of Chinese SKS from China has increased 50%-70%. Also shipping from China has increased . Ask other dealers on this forum that bring product from China and they will tell you that.
Chinese mentality is very different from Western world, I am not going to go in the details. Just want to say Norinco M305 price. What is current price and what is the price 5 years ago?
Prices at CTC. Well if we look at big cities like Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and Winnipeg most likely they do not have it or have increased their prices. Smaller city CTC might have some left and as soon as they sell them out, they will put an order to main warehouse for 10, 20 or 30 or more and then they will see current price to stock it up went up and they will increase their price too.
I would like to talk about CTC prices and formula that you presented to me.
So based on your information I will calculate outcome. As you mention price was "....$199.99 to $239.99 on sale, reg price will be $279.99 if it ever comes off the sale price!". Based on your information price increased 40% in what under year? Remember supply still dry. What do you think going to happen next? Based on the above mention information with increase of 40%(199 to 279 see above) that we have seen in the past 8 month it will go to 391.99($279+$112(*40%)=391.99). in the next 8 month (+/-2 month). I will round it to $389.99 (CTC prices that is and we both know smaller store price is a bit higher than that ).
So based on information that you provided CTC will sell SKS (if they have it in the year of course) for $389.99
Now forget the term refurb , non-refurb, unissued and etc . I will be blunt we have been spoiled by supply that we used have. Let's be honest CTC have "just SKS " period. You will see some "Chinese surplus" make to their shelves but again it won't be Russian.
Until this commotion around Russia and Ukraine will stop prices just going to go up. But based on what we see they will not go down
for the next 5 or more years I would say.