Harbl, you make some good points. However, the reason I believe that ammo will become available cheaper after the panic is because I think many stockpiled with money they didn't have and the creditors will be a callin'. When a large number of people want to or need to sell to pay for life, holding out at inflated prices will turn to competitive pricing. Compare that to a return to normal, pre panic stock on store shelves, people needing to sell will do so at a price they can get. Just my take.
Who's worried about the ammo situation?
- Thread starter joe-nwt
- Start date
- Location
- Niagara Region, Ontario. For now
I just make sure to buy something every couple weeks.
Today I bought 1500 rounds of some 22lr, and last week it was some reloading supplies.
Next week will likely be some of each.
I'm not overly concerned, but I'm sitting on about 7000 rounds of various .22lr, and a couple crates of 7.62x39, plus whatever reloading supplies I have.
Today I bought 1500 rounds of some 22lr, and last week it was some reloading supplies.
Next week will likely be some of each.
I'm not overly concerned, but I'm sitting on about 7000 rounds of various .22lr, and a couple crates of 7.62x39, plus whatever reloading supplies I have.
That is a given. Phil has already stated some ammo will go up by 15%. And even if the hoarders have a liquidation sale, it's highly unlikely they will give it away. Some might, many will ask pretty close to the going rate, IMHO.
I really wonder about the 15% though. My stash of 333's was bought at 7.99 only a few years ago. Quite a bit cheaper than the current price. I'm curious to see where the next adjustment "settles" in at......
Rookie.....
I don't really think that's likely, mainly because I think it's too difficult to buy a quantity of ammunition that equals a large enough sum of money.
Most of the savvy hoarders aren't buying at the inflated prices - they are selling what they bought BEFORE the panic set in and I suspect the people buying also aren't buying large sums of ammunition either.
Let's say Harbl the Hoarder is selling some of the few dozen bricks of .22 he bought for $20 prior to the panic for $100.
Bluesclues the buyer is buying at $100 - but only buys 1, maybe 2 boxes thinking $100 for a brick of .22 is a bit steep, but is thankful he could find anything at all.
If Harbl the Hoarder bought 10 creates of 10 bricks before the crisis, it would have cost him $2000 - and he would have basically filled his entire gun closet with .22 (100 bricks of .22 occupy a LOT of space).
Alternatively, Bluesclues the buyer who ended up with 2 of Harbl the Hoarder's bricks paid $200 for 2 bricks.
Now let's say Harbl the Hoarder has to pay his $2000 CC bill he racked up to buy the bricks - well $2000 isn't very much to cover - and if noone but Bluesclues the buyer bought Harbl's wares, realistically, he only has to come up with $1800 which is even more manageable.
Alternatively - Bluesclues the buyer is only down $200 to get 2 bricks - if the price for whatever reason crashes to $15, he certainly would be an idiot to sell - and even then it wouldn't cover the cost for him to pay the $200 to get the 2 bricks in the first place. Furthermore, $200 really isn't very much money either.
The thing is, it's was quite difficult logistically to store $10,000 worth of ammunition PRIOR TO the panic (I know first hand) and I don't think many other people did, and really, I don't think many people are going out and buying $10,000 worth of ammunition in one time purchases right now.
Instead, I think a large number of buyers are buying very small quantities either with cash or with small enough amounts of debt that can be easily and rapidly paid off. Now that applies to both the hoarders AND the desperate buyers - thus I don't think too many people are going heavily into debt to buy ammunition and when supply and demand equals off - there won't be a very large number of overlevereged fools dumping their ammo at firesale prices.
The practical, tangible nature of ammunition make it almost impossible to take physical possession of a large amount of ammunition. Put it this way, let's say .223 was $1 per round. $10,000 right now would only buy you 10,000 rounds - or 6 and a quarter 1600 round crates of Norinco .223. Rounding down - 6 crates of ammo is not something many people can easily transport or store - it is HIGHLY inconvenient - so I think the number of people doing so (especially at the elevated prices now) are either very low, or non-existent.
As a frame of comparison: At $0.27 per round - $10,000 could buy you just about 24 crates of Nork .223 - and that alone would be about 1500 lbs, would take up an enormous amount of space, require a fairly fit person to shuffle around, and probably 2 trips to a gun store (or a large and special vehicle to transport).
BTW Bluesclothes, I'm not in any way insinuating you are a fool or idiot - it just was a coincidence that your name started with "B" for buyer and my name started with "H" for Hoarder. Please don't take my use of your name as an insult or attack - it was only for illustrative purposes and I certainly have no ill feelings towards you. Please forgive me if it came off that way. If it was in anyway offensive, I apologize.
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Harbl, no offence taken at all.
I do understand the point you are making though. On the flip side though, I do see the potential for a glut of reasonably cheap ammo in the not too distant future.
My reasoning is as follows:
Firstly, I do believe that some bought a fair amount of ammo at higher prices that they will soon discover that they couldnt afford.
I also believe that a lot of large quantity buyers bought ammo believing that they would shoot it over the next few years only to realize that life can sometimes be expensive and need to sell it down the road after the panic is over and will not get what they paid for it.
I also believe that many people believe that the value of their stash will remain a constant. This is ofcourse, may not be true if people bought at inflated prices and the market levels off again at before panic prices.
The panic will eventually stop, prices will level off again and, the store shelves will again have supply.
That being said, the occasional shooter that has stockpiled is left with a couple of options.
a) he can shoot it
b) he can just keep it
c) he can sell it or give it away
Either way, there is plenty of ammo around. Getting your hands on it depends on when you buy and how much you want to spend.
I have read on hear that ammo is like precious metals. It will always have a value and a use. My point is, just like gold, ammo prices will rise and fall. Right now, people are all in a panic and the fear mongering is rampant. A lot of people are buying cause they're scared. This is not good business sense and for those that bought too much, I believe, it will be back on the market at lower or pre panic retail prices. After all, the actuall amount of people that shoot a lot every year is a small percentage of gun owners.
Speaking only of myself here, I know that this "shortage" will not last forever. I also know several friends who shoot regularly have told me that if the supply dries up for 6 months or a year, they will shoot what they have and buy again when ammo becomes available. No big deal for a lot of guys, its a hobby for most, and they will not pay twice the price for ammo.
Just my opinion.
I do understand the point you are making though. On the flip side though, I do see the potential for a glut of reasonably cheap ammo in the not too distant future.
My reasoning is as follows:
Firstly, I do believe that some bought a fair amount of ammo at higher prices that they will soon discover that they couldnt afford.
I also believe that a lot of large quantity buyers bought ammo believing that they would shoot it over the next few years only to realize that life can sometimes be expensive and need to sell it down the road after the panic is over and will not get what they paid for it.
I also believe that many people believe that the value of their stash will remain a constant. This is ofcourse, may not be true if people bought at inflated prices and the market levels off again at before panic prices.
The panic will eventually stop, prices will level off again and, the store shelves will again have supply.
That being said, the occasional shooter that has stockpiled is left with a couple of options.
a) he can shoot it
b) he can just keep it
c) he can sell it or give it away
Either way, there is plenty of ammo around. Getting your hands on it depends on when you buy and how much you want to spend.
I have read on hear that ammo is like precious metals. It will always have a value and a use. My point is, just like gold, ammo prices will rise and fall. Right now, people are all in a panic and the fear mongering is rampant. A lot of people are buying cause they're scared. This is not good business sense and for those that bought too much, I believe, it will be back on the market at lower or pre panic retail prices. After all, the actuall amount of people that shoot a lot every year is a small percentage of gun owners.
Speaking only of myself here, I know that this "shortage" will not last forever. I also know several friends who shoot regularly have told me that if the supply dries up for 6 months or a year, they will shoot what they have and buy again when ammo becomes available. No big deal for a lot of guys, its a hobby for most, and they will not pay twice the price for ammo.
Just my opinion.
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I just broke the 10,000rd mark for my .22lr stash, it's becoming quite an obsession and I'm quite proud of it
YOU AREN'T SUPPOSED TO GO INTO DEBT?!?!?! Ah, just kidding! I buy when it is on sale. A month or so ago, our SK Co-op s had Federal 525 on for $18.88 + tax. I added another case to my pile. I use money that would otherwise be wasted on food and clothing.
If I was a young guy and making good money, I wouldn't be whizzing it away making payments on some jacked up pickup. I would be buying guns and ammo. When I was raising my two daughters, family got first dibs on the food and clothing money, but that's history now.
I don't consider myself a hoarder. I fully intend to shoot it off. If I croak before I get that done, my nephew and his son are going to have to take up the job.
If I was a young guy and making good money, I wouldn't be whizzing it away making payments on some jacked up pickup. I would be buying guns and ammo. When I was raising my two daughters, family got first dibs on the food and clothing money, but that's history now.
I don't consider myself a hoarder. I fully intend to shoot it off. If I croak before I get that done, my nephew and his son are going to have to take up the job.
Let's all remember one thing. The vast majority of gun owners in Canada are not volume shooters. Most are the casual shooter/hunter type. You know, the type that will harvest 45+ rabbits/chickens with each box of 22lr. Even if ammo was to double in price temporarily, they will not be buying any $50 bulk packs. They will buy 1 or 2, $5 boxes to tide them over. Same with centerfire hunters. Even if they suddenly had to pay $50.00 for a box of hunting ammo, the rewards of a successful hunt outweigh the higher price. but they won't be buying any volume.
It's the recent hoarders that are the volume shooters. They are the ones that have the potential to be making a big mistake and are quite likely to lose in the long run if they don't find someone to buy ammo at a ridiculous price.
It's the recent hoarders that are the volume shooters. They are the ones that have the potential to be making a big mistake and are quite likely to lose in the long run if they don't find someone to buy ammo at a ridiculous price.
Brutus
CGN Ultra frequent flyer
Same same
Brutus
CGN Ultra frequent flyer
I don't have that large of number of rimfire on hand, but I do maintain about 1000 hunting rounds and about 2500-3000 match rounds.I just broke the 10,000rd mark for my .22lr stash, it's becoming quite an obsession and I'm quite proud of it
My good supply of Scenars and Lapua brass is holding up quite well. Shotgun ammo is steady with lots of buckshot & slugs at home which are rarely used. CT provides my upland game loads when I am low on ammo, which I use almost all the time. No problems here.
gushulak
CGN frequent flyer
I hoard ammo always, each paycheck some goes to ammo, so I am pretty much stocked to the teeth, believe in the buy it cheap and stack it deep theory. Can easily ride the storm out. For what its worth, in Brandon, MB and area ammo is plentiful and prices are good, have bought a bunch lately on the cheap!
bought a brick today of 22, 23.99$, got home thinking sweet, good score, not a bad price. Got home and noticed it is only 400 rds.
when did that happen? AE 36 gr hp.
Now even the ammo manufacturers are deceiving the customers, with smaller packages, but the same price.
They must of got the idea from the food industry.
PorkNBeans
Regular
- Location
- Central Manitoba
i meditate on top of my ammo boxes. it helps to relieve the stress.
hometownhero
CGN Ultra frequent flyer
- Location
- Toon Town, Sk
bought a brick today of 22, 23.99$, got home thinking sweet, good score, not a bad price. Got home and noticed it is only 400 rds.
when did that happen? AE 36 gr hp.
A few years ago at least.
